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There are plenty of baseball betting strategies, but not all of them are effective. You really have to sift through the wealth of options available today and choose only those few that can truly give you an edge. The internet is full of these online pundits and anonymous Internet commenters, who are more than happy to debate their merits, making it tough actually to know which are worthy of your attention.
Throughout the Best Baseball MLB Betting Strategies for 2024 article, SuperPh has covered some of the best 2024 Baseball MLB betting strategies, covering some key approaches to make you a savvier bettor and hopefully help improve those bottom-line results.
Best Baseball MLB Betting Strategies for 2024
1. Be Cautious with Big Moneyline Favorites
In the Baseball MLB Betting Strategies, one of the biggest mistakes many beginner bettors make is relying too heavily on wagering on heavy moneyline favorites. In theory, it would seem like a good idea to bet on the likes of the New York Yankees or the Los Angeles Dodgers, heavily favored teams- but in reality, this approach often results in more losses than gains.
Large money line favorites have crummy math on their bets. Even being favored at -300 odds, a bettor would need to win three in a row just not to break even. For example, betting $300 on three favorites at -300 odds may show you a profit of $200 when the first two legs hit, but once the third favorite loses, that $200 profit is lost, and you will be another $100 further behind, making a loser out of a winning record.
Instead, consider coming to underdogs where the risk is lower for much higher potential gain. Value bets on baseball are a long-term issue, and going for dogs may turn out to give the best value bets that slowly build your bankroll over time.
2. Track Umpire Trends
Many bettors overlook the influence that the umpires have on the outcome of MLB (Major League Baseball) games. Seasoned handicappers, however, frequently make use of the tendencies of umpires in determining their selections. Not all umpires favor calling a consistent strike zone, and this will directly correlate with how many runs are scored in one game. For example, an umpire whose strike zone is tight will be more apt to call walks, thus creating more base runners and also possibly more runs scored.
Conversely, when an umpire is calling a wider strike zone, fewer baserunners via the walk translate to lower-scoring games. Knowing these trends gives you a strong leg up when betting totals over/under.
To illustrate, perhaps you decided there were two games in which you wanted to bet the under. If Lance Barksdale is the umpire for game one – who calls a lot of under into games going under the total – it would make complete sense to bet the under there. On the other hand, if game two is being umpired by Ted Barrett and his games tend to go over, you may want to change your mind on betting the under in that matchup.
3. Exploit Overnight Lines
Some sportsbooks release lines before others, which gives the opportunity for good value from more informed bettors to take advantage. Overnight lines: the line is usually set well before the public really begins placing their bets. For example, value often before professional bettors move the odds.
For example, say it’s Tuesday night, and you’re watching a team play. The line came out on Wednesday. Maybe, based on a performance or an injury update, you could feel fine jumping on the odds early before the market adjusts.
Tracking the line’s movement overnight is a basis for this strategy. Sharp bettors-professionals-overnight bet on lines, creating huge line movements. If there is a huge movement very early in the morning, it will likely be sharps exploiting a value they have identified.
4. First Five Innings Betting
Another popular method of an MLB betting strategy is a first five innings bet. This is especially adequate when there is one key focus in a game by a consumer on who the starting pitchers are. In that case, with an innings bet, one would be dependent on that specific starting pitcher before the bullpen guys come in and blow the whole bet completely.
For instance, you may believe a certain pitcher, like Max Scherzer, is an elite starter, and you can be very confident in his team-leading after five innings of a particular game in which he is starting. You might know, though, that his bullpen isn’t that great, so to hedge some of that risk, you could bet on him for the full game in case they blow it late.
Baseball Over/Under Betting Strategy
If your pick is based on the starting pitching matchup, then it likely makes sense to bet the five-inning line rather than the full game line. The former focuses on the innings in which those starters are likely to pitch in before the bullpen takes over.
That is partly eliminated with the first five innings of betting. This form of a bet allows the bettors to focus only on the performance of the starting pitchers.
5. Betting on Pitching Trends
The center of baseball involves pitching, so understanding the pitchers’ trends is key to betting proficiently on the MLB. Each pitch matters because, on any given day of the week, a pitcher can be the difference between night and day.
Scouting pitchers pay attention to pitcher splits, such as how they perform given certain circumstances. Maybe a pitcher performs much better in the daytime as opposed to nighttime, and perhaps the pitcher struggles on the road, but at home, he does well.
Consider Hyun-Jin Ryu’s 2019 season. At home, he was virtually unbeatable, compiling a 10-1 record and a 1.93 ERA. Away from home, though, Ryu’s ERA swelled to 2.72, and his win-loss record dropped to 4-4. These are important trends that can key good betting opportunities, especially home vs. away performance.
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6. Monitor Weather Conditions
Weather conditions may highly affect the outcome of a baseball game, especially when considering totals. Wind is the biggest factor in the weather, as fluctuating strong winds could turn home runs into fly-outs or vice versa.
Paying attention to weather reports is an inordinate advantage that might be considered in stadiums like Wrigley Field, as it’s usually where the wind makes a huge difference in the game of totals or Moneyline bets.
7. Line Shopping for the Best Odds
A part of the Baseball MLB Betting Strategies is to ensure maximum profits by identifying the best possible odds across several sportsbooks. Line shopping simply means comparing odds across a number of sports betting sites to find the best odds for your bet. Of course, this may sound somewhat time-consuming, though in the fullness of time, getting the best odds can make all the difference in your bankroll.
This could be as simple as finding one sportsbook offering +120 on an underdog with another listed at +115, as that first option would be a better payout if that underdog is able to win. The more often you find better odds, the higher your long-term profits will be.
8. Be Selective with Parlays
While parlays promise great returns, they are very risky. Instead of spreading your money on various outcomes at the same time, a punter should show selectiveness and keep parlays limited. It is advisable to keep straight bets or smaller parlays in order to keep the risk at a level that is bearable.
=> View more: Top Middle Betting Strategy – Middle Betting in Sports.
Conclusion about Baseball MLB Betting Strategies
Betting on baseball can be a very lucrative business if the right strategies are put in place. Some of the methods for improving your success include avoiding heavy favorites, knowing your umpires and pitching trends, and taking advantage of overnight lines and first five innings bets. Always remember to line shop for the best odds, and be very careful with parlays. With Baseball MLB betting strategies in your pocket, you’re ready to go and take on the 2024 MLB season in full force.
